From : The Himalayan Times Daily, Jan 22, 2014
There is an ongoing controversy vis-à-vis the roles of
youth. Some appreciate them as the harbinger of nation building and others
think them as the source of political violence. The large cohort of youth often
termed as "youth bulge" (The
term coined by German social scientist Gunnar Heinsohn in the mid-1990s and
made popular by American political scientists Gary Fuller and Jack A.
Goldstone) is historically associated with political crisis. Those who
support the latter consider 'young males' as the protagonists for criminal
activities and political violence. They opine a
large proportion of young adults and a rapid rate of growth in the working-age
population tend to worsen unemployment, prolong dependency on parents,
diminish self-esteem and fuel frustrations.
Speaking about 'youth bulge' Samuel P. Huntington, states,
"I don’t think Islam is any more violent than any other religions
[. . .]. But the
key factor is the demographic factor." Henrik
Urdal's views on his report entitled "A Clash of Generation?" are
also identical to Huntington. His study shows the total number of youth in the
world is growing at a much lower rate than in the previous five decades, and is
expected to remain relatively constant between 2010 and 2050.
According
to the statistics, between 1970 and 1999, 80 percent of civil conflicts
occurred in different countries where 60 percent of the population or more were
under the age of thirty, according to the report of Population Action
International (PAI). In recent years there are about sixty countries with youth
bulges, of which majority are experiencing social unrest and violence.
Demographers have stressed that youth bulges do not solely explain these civil
conflicts—corruption, ethno-religious tensions, poverty, and poor political
institutions also play contributing roles—but nor do they rule out as
coincidence the predilection toward social unrest among states with large youth
populations.
Nepalese context
Everyday thousands of Nepalese youth fly for foreign
employment to secure their financial future. The census report of 2011 shows almost
20 percent of total population (52, 90,051/2, 64, 94,504) has gone out of
country who are of between 15 to 24 years. Among them 75% workers are unskilled
being 25 percent semi-skilled according to the Government of Nepal, Ministry of
Labor and Transportation Management (MoLTM). Out of them, 75 percent don't have
completed their school education. Some workers even have been facing several
problems including loot, deception, and torture. The annual report of
Department of Foreign Employment shows that, everyday Nepal receives 3-5 dead
bodies of labor from abroad. Had there been the sufficient employment
opportunities of their skills and interests within the country, they would not
have been to the foreign countries.
Capital formation is a crucial
factor for the simultaneous development of a country. The more a country uses
the resources productively, the more are the chances of overall development of
the country. Annually our country receives more than two hundred billion rupees
as remittance, which contributes 23% of GDP. The studies show that remittance
has not been used in a productive sector. The latest Central Bank of Nepal
report shows that in fiscal year 2011/12 more than 90% of the total remittance
has been utilized for household consumption. The recent Economic Survey
postulates that share of household consumption on total GDP of Nepal is 91.4%.
It is a universal rule that, for a country to be developed, investment
expenditure should be higher than consumption expenditure. Unlike this, investment
expenditure in Nepal is low (nearly 32.8% of total GDP, out of this Gross
Capital Formation is 19.6%) to increase the employment opportunities. The
stated fact reveals that, the remittance has insignificant contribution in the
capital formation process due to lack of long term investment strategies of the
income being received from remittance.
According to National Planning
Commission, the annual rate of urbanization in Nepal is 4.7 percent which is a
rapid trend. Most of the rural people comparatively with a better income have
been migrating to urban areas leaving their productive land fallow. They leave
their land either barren or give rented out to the traditional farmers, which
in turn has undermined the potential productive benefits of these rural lands
in the country. Agricultural sector
contributes around 35% to the GDP. Despite this situation, in the national GDP,
agricultural system is still in dismal situation. The percentage of educated
human resources' involvement in agricultural sector is very insignificant.
Ways
Out
With
the right investments and continued progress through the demographic
transition, in time large youth populations can become economically-productive
populations that can drive economic gains—a phenomenon known as the demographic
dividend. For example, the rapidly growing economies of East Asia, or in
Europe, that of Ireland, all underwent small youth bulges that contributed to
their countries’ strong economic outputs. “If you can educate young people and
create jobs for them, they can be a boon for development,” Michelle Gavin, a critic
argues. She also believes it is possible for youth bulges to help shape
politics for the better, citing, for example, the role that South Africa’s
large youth population played in the anti-apartheid movement in the 1980s.
Now
the questions arise: How long do we enjoy the remittance of our youths? What
happens if Nepalese youths don’t get any opportunity outside and we too fail to
create opportunity in the country? Surely the situation will be exacerbated and
the large group of youth may be counterproductive for the nation. So what we
need is good education and the employment opportunities in the country and
respect to the jobs of every kind. Contrary to general expectation, the 'youth
bulge' with necessary skill can play constructive role for the nation, so let's
begin to create similar situation.
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